Purpose: This study was conducted to develop key performance indicators (KPIs) for home care nursing (HCN) based on a balancedscorecard, and to construct a performance prediction model of strategic objectives using the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). Methods:This methodological study included four steps: establishment of KPIs, performance prediction modeling, development of a performanceprediction model using BBN, and simulation of a suggested nursing management strategy. An HCN expert group and astaff group participated. The content validity index was analyzed using STATA 13.0, and BBN was analyzed using HUGIN 8.0. Results:We generated a list of KPIs composed of 4 perspectives, 10 strategic objectives, and 31 KPIs. In the validity test of the performanceprediction model, the factor with the greatest variance for increasing profit was maximum cost reduction of HCN services. The factorwith the smallest variance for increasing profit was a minimum image improvement for HCN. During sensitivity analysis, theprobability of the expert group did not affect the sensitivity. Furthermore, simulation of a 10% image improvement predicted themost effective way to increase profit. Conclusion: KPIs of HCN can estimate financial and non-financial performance. The performanceprediction model for HCN will be useful to improve performance.