코호트출산율(Cohort fertility)에대한국내연구는미완결코호트출산율추정보다는출산행태의변동을파악, 1980년대전후반의결혼코호트의출산지연경향규명, 출생코호트별연령별출산율, 연령별누적출산율, 결혼연령의차이와인과관계를도출등코호트출산율에대한출산행태의영향요인도출에 초점이 맞춰져 있다. 본 논문은 요인 도출보다는 1945~2015년생의 미완결 코호트를 보완하고장기(long-term) 시계열의 완결 코호트출산율을 도출하는 통계적 방법(회귀분석, 시계열 예측모형, Lee-Carter 모형, 함수적데이터모형(FDM)과산출과정을소개한다. 아울러시산된예측값의정확성을 위해 통계청의 공식통계와 비교한다. 분석결과 우리나라 출생연도별 코호트출산율은 1945년생3.58명, 1960년생2.08명, 1975년생1.59명, 1990년생1.34명, 2000년생1.33명, 2015년생1.44명이다. 이는 최근 통계청에서 실시한 전문가 판단법의 코호트출산율과 비슷한 수치이며 추이형태는 유사하다. 우리나라의코호트출산율은1960년생이후로인구대체선(2.1명) 아래로떨어졌고그이후로점진적인하강을 나타낸 후, 2000년생 이후에 점진적인 증가를 보일 것으로 전망된다. The previous study of cohort fertility rate for Korea shows that the focus is on the deriving of the factors influencing on childbirth behavior such as the change of birth behavior, the delayed birth rate of marriage cohort in the late 1980s, the difference of marriage age and causal relationship rather than forecasting of incomplete cohort fertility rate. This paper is based on statistical methods (regression analysis, time series prediction model, Lee-Carter model, Functional Data Model (FDM)), which complements the incomplete cohort from 1945 to 2015 and estimates the long-term time series on complete cohort fertility rate rather than deriving the factors of childbirth behavior. And it does compare results with official statistics of KOSTAT for the accuracy of the predicted values. According to the results, the cohort fertility rate for Korea was 3.58 in 1945, 2.08 in 1960, 1.59 in 1975, 1.34 in 1990, 1.33 in 2000 and 1.44 in 2015 cohort. This is similar to the cohort fertility rate of the Expert Judgment recently implemented by KOSTAT. Korea's cohort fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level fertility, 2.1, since the birth cohort of 1960, followed by a continuous descent, and then gradually to be increased after 2000 cohort.