[영문]THE NOTION THAT the demographic transition in the West has two distinctphases was originally suggested by Lesthaeghe and van de Kaa (1986) andelaborated by van de Kaa (1987). These authors proposed the terminologyof a first and second demographic transition. The 1986 article posited thatnew living arrangements, and cohabitation (premarital or postmarital) inparticular, were not solely the outcomes of changing socioeconomic conditionsor rising female employment, but equally the expression of secularand anti-authoritarian sentiments of better-educated men and women whoheld an egalitarian world view, placed greater emphasis on Maslow’s (1954)“higher order needs” (i.e., self-actualization, individualistic and expressiveorientations, need for recognition), and, to use Inglehart’s term (1970, 1990),had stronger “postmaterialist” political orientations. Furthermore, the seconddemographic transition would also be characterized by substantial postponementof both marriage and parenthood, and by an increase in the shareof births to unmarried couples. If fertility control during the first transitionwas a matter of avoiding births of higher parities and births at older ages inorder to safeguard the opportunities of the children already born, duringthe second it is a matter of postponing or eschewing parenthood altogetherbecause of more pressing competing goals such as prolonging education,achieving more stable income positions, increased consumerism associatedwith self-expressive orientations, finding a suitable companion and realizinga more fulfilled partnership, keeping an open future, and the like (seealso Aries 1980). At the aggregate level postponement of fertility would notonly lead to a temporary dip of fertility below replacement level, but tostructural, long-term subreplacement cohort fertility