[영문]Public spending on health and long-term care is likely to put considerable pressure on government budgets in the future. Such spending has already risen over the past three decades, accelerating since the turn of the century to reach almost 7% of GDP for OECD countries on average in 2005. OECD projections suggest that in the absence of policy action, the average spending share could almost double by 2050, albeit with considerable variation across individual countries. This chapter presents the projections, highlighting the many uncertainties -- related both to policy and to the underlying drivers of spending -- but also what seems like more robust conclusions.