CHAPTER 1
Introduction 1
CHAPTER 2
Literature Review and model development 7
1. Established literature and its limits 9
2. MMESP Overview 15
3. K.Sim: Basic structure and simulation process 29
CHAPTER 3
Validation test of resulting estimates 37
1. Validation test of income distribution estimates 41
2. Testing the validity of income tax estimates 53
CHAPTER 4
Long-term forecasts on income taxes: population
aging and increasing pension income 53
1. Baseline forecasts 55
2. Income tax revenue forecasts based on adjustments to tax
brackets 59
3. Rising National Pension contribution rate and the income
tax revenue forecasts 65
CHAPTER 5
Conclusion 71
References 79
Appendix 83