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기사

Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash? /

개인저자
Martin, Philippe ;, Rey, Helene
수록페이지
1631-1651 p.
발행일자
2006.12.21
출판사
American Economic Association
초록
[영문]We analyze the effects of financial and trade globalization on the likelihood of financial crashes in emerging markets. While trade globalization always makes crashes less likely, financial globalization may make them more likely, especially when trade costs are high. Pessimistic expectations can be self-fulfilling and lead to a collapse in demand for goods and assets. Such a crash comes with a current account reversal and drops in income and investment. Lower-income countries are more prone to such demand-based financial crises. A quantitative evaluation shows our model is consistent with the main stylized facts of financial crashes in emerging markets