Recidivism over 18 months was investigated in a representative group of young Swedish male offenders, 15–17 years old, referred to community-based rehabilitative programmes (n= 189). Registry data on their earlier contacts with social services and previous convictions were also collected. Eighteen months after programme start, 60 per cent of the young offenders were registered as suspected of new crimes, 48 per cent were registered for crimes of violence. Previous contacts with the social services had been documented for 44 per cent, and 30 per cent were registered as previously convicted. However, the group was highly heterogeneous, and all registry data corresponded well with self-reported history of antisocial behaviour collected at the start of the programme, which identified three subgroups (n= 60, 65 and 64, respectively) with significantly different problem profiles. Results are discussed in relation to developmental theories of antisocial development and the need to adhere to the risk principle when designing interventions for young offenders.