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Analyzing the Causal Impact of Higher Education on Fertility and Potential Mechanisms - Evidence from Regression Kink Designs

Analyzing the Causal Impact of Higher Education on Fertility and Potential Mechanisms - Evidence from Regression Kink Designs

  • 연구책임자Hosung Sohn
  • 발행월2017 . 12
  • 종류기본 Research Paper 2017-01

요약

Little is known about what causes fertility level to go down. One factor that has been speculated to reduce fertility level is education. Theoretical arguments regarding the relationship between education and fertility are not unanimous as to whether education increases or decreases fertility. Consequently, this research question is a matter of empirical investigation. This research, therefore, tests this hypothesis by analyzing the “causal” impact of higher education on fertility using the census data (2%) administered by Statistics Korea. In order to account for the endogeneity issue inherent in the higher education variable, this study exploits higher education reform initiated in 1993 that boosted one’s likelihood of entering college with the assumption that this reform is plausibly exogenous. Based on regression kink designs, I find that college degree reduces the likelihood of childbirths by 0.228 and the total number of childbirths by 1.32. Analyses of possible mechanisms show that one significant channel that drives the negative effects is through labor markets; female college graduates are more likely to be a wage earner and more likely to have pro fessional occupations. I argue, therefore, that government policies should be directed more toward reducing opportunity costs of fertility induced by the increase in earning capacity.


*Key Words: Fertility Policy, Labor Market, Regression Kink Designs, Casual Inference 

목차

Abstract 1
Chapter 1. Introduction 3
 Section 1. Research Background 5
 Section 2. Purpose of the Research 8
Chapter 2. Theoretical Background and Literature Review 11
 Section 1. Theoretical Background 13
 Section 2. Literature Review 16
Chapter 3. Institutional Background 21
Chapter 4. Empirical Strategy 27
 Section 1. Identification 29
 Section 2. Estimation 32
 Section 3. Inference 34
Chapter 5. Data and Sample 35
 Section 1. Data Description 37
 Section 2. Sample Selection 38
 Section 3. Descriptive Statistics 40
Chapter 6. Validity Check for the RKD 43
 Section 1. Kink in the Treatment Variable 45
 Section 2. Tests of Manipulation 48
 Section 3. Kink in Baseline Characteristics 51
Chapter 7. Results 59
 Section 1. Effects of a College Degree on Fertility 61
 Section 2. Identifying the Mechanisms 64
 Section 3. Robustness Check: Placebo Tests 69
Chapter 8. Discussion and Conclusions 73
 Section 1. Discussion 75
 Section 2. Conclusions 77
References 81