검색 결과
Analysis of Public Acceptance of Social Security Policy: Focusing on Willingness to Pay (WTP)
Ko, Jayee(Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs) ; Choi, Eun Chul(Korea Maritime & Ocean University) 보건사회연구 , Vol.46, No.1, pp.172-191 https://dx.doi.org/10.15709/hswr.2026.46.1.172
Abstract
This study evaluates public acceptance of social security policies in South Korea by estimating citizens’ willingness to pay (WTP). A nationwide survey was conducted with 3,073 respondents aged 19 and older, focusing on four key areas of social security: elderly support, child support, support for the unemployed and marginal workers, and support for persons with disabilities and for low-income groups. The results show that over 70% of respondents agreed on the necessity of expanding social security policies and expressed a willingness to bear additional costs, with particularly high WTP observed for elderly support and support for vulnerable populations. Experience with receiving social benefits emerged as a major factor positively influencing WTP, while demographic variables such as gender, income level, and employment type also showed significant effects. In particular, non-regular workers demonstrated higher WTP for policies targeting unemployed and marginal workers, suggesting that welfare attitudes are shaped not only by income level but also by current socioeconomic status. The total estimated annual WTP, when scaled to the taxpayer population, amounts to approximately KRW 17.4 trillion, or about 0.7% of GDP. By quantifying public preferences for specific social security programs, this study offers a useful empirical framework for designing equitable and financially sustainable welfare policies.
초록
본 연구는 사회보장정책에 대한 국민 수용성을 정량적으로 평가하기 위해 지불의사액(WTP)을 추정하였다. 전국 19세 이상 가구주 및 배우자 3,073명을 대상으로 설문조사를 실시하고, 노인·아동·실업자 및 한계근로자·장애인 및 저소득층 지원 등 4개 영역을 분석하였다. 그 결과 약 70% 이상이 정책 확대와 비용 부담에 동의하였으며, 특히 노인 및 취약계층 지원에서 높은 WTP가 나타났다. 또한 수혜 경험과 고용형태 등이 유의한 영향을 미쳤으며, 총 WTP는 연간 약 17.4조 원으로 추정되었다.
코로나19 팬데믹 기간 한국 요양시설 노인의 초과 사망 추정
Kim, Jeehyun(National Medical Center) ; Lee, Eun-Hoo(National Medical Center) ; Kim, Myoung-Hee(National Medical Center) 보건사회연구 , Vol.46, No.3, pp.168-192 https://dx.doi.org/10.15709/hswr.2026.46.3.168
Abstract
Older people in nursing homes are particularly vulnerable to infectious diseases, yet studies quantifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their mortality remain limited. To estimate excess mortality among older nursing home residents during the pandemic, we analyzed mortality data from Statistics Korea for individuals aged ≥65 years who died in social welfare facilities between 2015 and 2022. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model fitted to 2015–2019 data was applied to estimate expected deaths for 2020–2022, which were compared with observed deaths. Excess mortality during 2020–2022 was estimated at 6,992 deaths (95% confidence interval [CI]=142.7–15,027.4), approximately 15% above the expected level, and was concentrated in 2022 (6,191.2, 95% CI=2,899.6–10,057.6). Significant excesses were observed for “not elsewhere classified” (R00-R99, 3,089.2, 95% CI=1,422.1–4,775.9), neoplasms (734.4, 95% CI=604.0–865.9), and diseases of the genitourinary system (139.6, 95% CI=78.8–201.1), whereas deaths from mental and behavioral disorders and from external causes were lower than expected. These findings are consistent with indirect pandemic effects, such as healthcare system strain and disrupted chronic disease management, although studies linking healthcare utilization data are required to disentangle the mechanisms.
초록
본 연구는 통계청 사망원인 통계자료(2015-2022년, 65세 이상)를 이용하여 SARIMA 모형을 구축하고 코로나19 팬데믹 기간 요양시설 노인의 초과 사망을 추정하였다. 2020–2022년 초과 사망은 6,992명(95% 신뢰구간 142.7–15,027.4)이었으며, 2022년에 집중되었다(6,191.2명, 95% 신뢰구간 2,899.6–10,057.6). 사인별로는 달리 분류되지 않은 증상 및 임상소견(3,089.2명, 95% 신뢰구간 1,422.1–4,775.9), 신생물(734.4명, 95% 신뢰구간 604.0–865.9), 비뇨생식계 질환(139.6명, 95% 신뢰구간 78.8–201.1)에서 유의한 초과 사망이 관찰된 반면, 정신 및 행동장애와 외인에 의한 사망은 기대보다 적었다. 이는 의료체계 부담 및 만성질환 관리의 어려움 등 팬데믹의 간접적 영향과 부합하나, 기전 규명을 위한 의료이용 자료와의 연계 등 후속 연구가 필요하다.