검색 결과
코로나19 팬데믹 기간 한국 요양시설 노인의 초과 사망 추정
Kim, Jeehyun(National Medical Center) ; Lee, Eun-Hoo(National Medical Center) ; Kim, Myoung-Hee(National Medical Center) 보건사회연구 , Vol.46, No.3, pp.168-192 https://dx.doi.org/10.15709/hswr.2026.46.3.168
Abstract
Older people in nursing homes are particularly vulnerable to infectious diseases, yet studies quantifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their mortality remain limited. To estimate excess mortality among older nursing home residents during the pandemic, we analyzed mortality data from Statistics Korea for individuals aged ≥65 years who died in social welfare facilities between 2015 and 2022. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model fitted to 2015–2019 data was applied to estimate expected deaths for 2020–2022, which were compared with observed deaths. Excess mortality during 2020–2022 was estimated at 6,992 deaths (95% confidence interval [CI]=142.7–15,027.4), approximately 15% above the expected level, and was concentrated in 2022 (6,191.2, 95% CI=2,899.6–10,057.6). Significant excesses were observed for “not elsewhere classified” (R00-R99, 3,089.2, 95% CI=1,422.1–4,775.9), neoplasms (734.4, 95% CI=604.0–865.9), and diseases of the genitourinary system (139.6, 95% CI=78.8–201.1), whereas deaths from mental and behavioral disorders and from external causes were lower than expected. These findings are consistent with indirect pandemic effects, such as healthcare system strain and disrupted chronic disease management, although studies linking healthcare utilization data are required to disentangle the mechanisms.
초록
본 연구는 통계청 사망원인 통계자료(2015-2022년, 65세 이상)를 이용하여 SARIMA 모형을 구축하고 코로나19 팬데믹 기간 요양시설 노인의 초과 사망을 추정하였다. 2020–2022년 초과 사망은 6,992명(95% 신뢰구간 142.7–15,027.4)이었으며, 2022년에 집중되었다(6,191.2명, 95% 신뢰구간 2,899.6–10,057.6). 사인별로는 달리 분류되지 않은 증상 및 임상소견(3,089.2명, 95% 신뢰구간 1,422.1–4,775.9), 신생물(734.4명, 95% 신뢰구간 604.0–865.9), 비뇨생식계 질환(139.6명, 95% 신뢰구간 78.8–201.1)에서 유의한 초과 사망이 관찰된 반면, 정신 및 행동장애와 외인에 의한 사망은 기대보다 적었다. 이는 의료체계 부담 및 만성질환 관리의 어려움 등 팬데믹의 간접적 영향과 부합하나, 기전 규명을 위한 의료이용 자료와의 연계 등 후속 연구가 필요하다.
Housing Rights in End-of-Life Care: Lessons from the German Specialized Outpatient Palliative Care (SAPV) Model
Joo, Bohye(Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs) 보건사회연구 , Vol.46, No.3, pp.483-502 https://dx.doi.org/10.15709/hswr.2026.46.3.483
Abstract
This study aims to examine the normative framework for guaranteeing the housing rights of older adults at the end of life, with a focus on Germany’s Specialized Outpatient Palliative Care (Spezialisierte ambulante Palliativversorgung, SAPV) system, and to derive policy implications for the Korean legal framework. While existing studies have approached hospice and palliative care primarily as issues concerning the expansion of medical or long-term care services, this study distinguishes itself by reframing the issue from the perspective of housing rights. The analysis demonstrates that Germany provides eligible insured persons with an enforceable entitlement to specialized outpatient palliative care and operates this system as an institutional mechanism supporting continued residence at the end of life within a social insurance framework comparable to that of Korea. The German SAPV system takes the qualitative notion of a “familiar home environment” as its normative point of departure, institutionalizing the assessment of the home-care environment and the organization of care there through the Koordination (coordination) benefit. It also evaluates the necessity of inpatient hospice care and the availability of home-based alternatives through the assessment algorithm developed by the Medical Service (Medizinischer Dienst Bund, MD Bund). In particular, the assessment guidelines (Begutachtungsanleitung) updated in 2026, which codify procedural mechanisms for determining the limits of home-based care, offer concrete legal-policy implications for Korean society, where significant institutional gaps in end-of-life care remain unaddressed. This study confirms the validity of the German SAPV model as a comparative legal reference framework for addressing the problem of death concentration in medical institutions in Korea, and can inform institutional reform toward a rights-based end-of-life care system.
초록
본 연구는 임종기 노인이 살던 곳에서 돌봄을 받으며 삶을 마무리할 수 있는 조건을 주거권의 관점에서 분석한다. 임종기 주거권을 비자발적 거처 이동에 대한 보호라는 소극적 차원, 거주 지속에 필요한 돌봄 지원이라는 적극적 차원, 거처에 관한 결정에서 당사자의 의사와 정당한 절차를 보장하는 절차적 차원으로 구성하고, 독일 전문외래완화의료(SAPV)의 법령, 지침, 계약을 검토한다. 분석 결과, 독일 법제는 법정 요건을 충족한 피보험자에게 요양시설을 포함한 익숙한 거처에서 전문 완화의료를 받을 급여 청구권을 인정한다. 또한 초기 사정을 통해 가정의 돌봄 자원과 부담을 확인하고, 필요한 돌봄을 조직하는 조정을 독립된 급여로 보상한다. 입원형 호스피스의 급여 요건에는 환자의 희망과 재가 돌봄의 불충분성이 포함되며, 질병금고의 의뢰를 받은 독립적 의료지원단은 대안적 돌봄 가능성을 검토하고 처방이나 신청과 다른 권고의 사유를 제시한다. 독일 사례는 임종기 주거권을 실질적으로 뒷받침하려면 당사자의 선택을 존중하는 데 더하여 거주 지속에 필요한 급여와 돌봄 조정, 의사결정 절차를 함께 마련해야 함을 시사한다.